Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fled Damascus last weekend after rebel forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, took control of the capital. Former President Assad fled to Moscow, where he and his family were granted asylum, ending decades of the Assad family’s rule in Syria. Assad claimed that he wanted to stay and fight, however Russia pleaded for him to escape. This marks a major change to Syria after having had years of chaotic civil war, and leaving Syria’s future uncertain to all—especially Israel.
For Israel, there are only two outcomes that can come from this: either the rebels who are now in power do not align with Iran and Hezbollah, or they do, and the situation gets worse. If the new leaders decide to cut ties with Assad’s old allies, it could ease security threats Israel has faced for years. On the other hand, if the rebels choose to strengthen ties with those groups, Israel could face an even more dangerous situation along its northern border.
If the rebels are more extremist, there is a big possibility that violence will spread to Israel, especially in the north. Furthermore, this sudden change might also lead Hezbollah to try and assert its dominance since Syria was a close ally of theirs. Another possible impact on the Middle East, as a whole, could be the waves of refugees that will likely flee Syria.
Moreover, as of now, Syria’s path is uncertain and its impacts are unclear. The rebels’ position on being allies with Iran and Hezbollah will determine the effect that it will have on Israel, and if Israel finds itself in a situation that is better or worse than before.
By: Tamar Van Dam (10th)
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